On Balance
This month’s weather report is more of a weather alert as markets enter a “Chaos phase”. What we can see is where we have entered the current period of market turbulence from – those are our initial starting conditions. As for the outlook ahead? We have no visibility right now but we must go forward anyway…
As global equity markets look ahead to the coming year, we summarise the year that has gone and look forward to the New Horizons of 2026 through the lens of Apollo.
Catfish season… We call our regular Apollo based commentary “The Weather report”. The analogies that we can make with the multiple elements of Value, Momentum and Uncertainty impacting markets in a continuous way chimes nicely with the idea of Currents, Tides and Winds, all impacting the navigation of the high seas. Whatever the nature of the vessel […]
One reason that we call this report “The Weather report” is that the analogies with multiple elements of Value, Momentum and Uncertainty impacting markets in a continuous way chimes with the idea of Currents, Tides and Winds, all impacting the navigation of the high seas. Whatever the nature of the vessel concerned or the skills, experience […]
With the arrival of H2 we take a look at the weather report from the end of H1 and at the prospects for the summer ahead
Remember the Citrini piece of ‘scenario analysis’ that went viral on social media on Sunday 22 February and hammered share prices of global software and cyber-security companies? The 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS. That piece of ‘scenario analysis’ has by and large been discredited, but the damage was done and for many people (to use a […]
On May 29 we posted a comment on BP – ‘it’s a gusher’ and what you would have seen (and can see if you take a look at past posts) is the chart of the right below. The chart is the Apollo Margin of Safety chart which gives users a continuous, objective assessment of the […]
Over the past few months we’ve followed the LVMH (share price) story through the eyes of Apollo. We picked the story up originally following the relentless downturn. It was when we noticed that the drivers of value had transitioned to Cash flow and Book Value that we saw the stock bottom. The market was looking […]
The rally in NASDAQ since March 30 has been impressive. The rally in AI, Space and Semi conductor stocks has been ‘extraordinary.’ MAG7 stocks have struggled by comparison and are being re-assessed from being asset light / cash generators to being quite the opposite. Then there are the issues of SpaceX valuation and I say […]
The rally in NASDAQ since March 30 has been impressive. The rally in AI, Space and Semi conductor stocks has been ‘extraordinary.’ MAG7 stocks have struggled by comparison and are being re-assessed from being asset light / cash generators to being quite the opposite. Then there are the issues of SpaceX valuation and I say […]
As we take forward the momentum of May towards the summer months, the forthcoming SpaceX IPO may have bigger implications for markets than we realise…
Semiconductors. The talk of the town and today is no exception. It’s been (and is) a must have sector for investors. It’s also a sector where the media and bears can’t stop trying to call the top. Three months ago we posted an article here on Linkedin – ‘Chips with everything’ in which we showed […]
You can Bank on it. AI’s not just a tech story anymore. It’s seeping into every corner of the market and that’s a big reason ‘Wall Street’s’ rushing to lift S&P 500 targets toward 8,500+. Time to look beyond Big Tech. Financials (S5FINL) are primed to benefit across the sector: productivity, risk, revenue. As Jamie […]
The chart below provides an excellent example of what we at Libra and the Apollo data set and signals have been doing for 20 years and still are. This image is BP – needless to say benefitting from events in the Middle East. And how. Anticipating entry and exit points for stocks, sectors and markets is tough. […]