On BalanceIn dark times, you need a friend. I was asked this morning politely what I thought of markets, given I’ve been around a long time. Pride aside, it’s actually true. From Black Monday (Oct 1987) to the Gulf War (1990–91), the 1994 bond shock, the Asian Financial Crisis and LTCM (1997–98), the dot‑com bust (2000–02), […]
Last week I shared the Apollo “Margin of Safety” chart on Pepsi (see articles) and noted how it, specifically and Consumer Staples as a sector (AKA “HALOS” – an acronym I heard coined by Joshua Brown in a recent and excellent podcast) are trading at a historically large premium to Value. That premium reflects risk […]
I don’t start the day wondering what to write the topic finds me. Every morning brings news, earnings, or rumour that creates an explosion of volatility: fact and supposition collide and markets move. The art of investing has changed. Today, success demands an additional, essential skill: recognising risk and opportunity in real time and then […]
At the start of last year I wrote a piece with the same title. Coming into 2025, many investors assumed 2024’s winners would stay winners. Then a surprise policy shock broad reciprocal tariffs announced by the White House sent markets into a tailspin. The cockpit went dark: prices became hypersensitive to headlines, speculation and narrative. […]
I wrote a piece the other day ‘What, when and why? The portfolio manager’s dilemma’ in which I said that I don’t start the day knowing what I am going to write. Opportunity just knocks. Whether you are an analyst or portfolio manager, you need to know when share prices are offering opportunity or risk […]
Knowing the when the where and the how is a powerful tool within the investment armoury.
The Apollo momentum signal is a measure of the momentum associated with inter-temporal changes in stock level expected returns and the consequent re-estimation of future expected returns by the market. We refer to this as the (momentum) accelerator signal. The image shows the Accelerator (long) signal as seen on the Broadcom – this is one […]
The Need to Know – Always Since we created Apollo – 20+ years ago, we have come up with one of two great ‘strap lines’ for what we do and ‘The Need to Know’ was one of them on the basis that once you know, you know. You see, you understand and make a decision […]
According to Edwin Starr, absolutely nothing, but shareholders of BAE Systems and other European defence stocks might beg to differ as the chart below shows.
Reporting on what has been going on and why is one thing. Knowing what to do about it and when is another altogether.