On BalanceLast week I shared the Apollo “Margin of Safety” chart on Pepsi (see articles) and noted how it, specifically and Consumer Staples as a sector (AKA “HALOS” – an acronym I heard coined by Joshua Brown in a recent and excellent podcast) are trading at a historically large premium to Value. That premium reflects risk […]
I don’t start the day wondering what to write the topic finds me. Every morning brings news, earnings, or rumour that creates an explosion of volatility: fact and supposition collide and markets move. The art of investing has changed. Today, success demands an additional, essential skill: recognising risk and opportunity in real time and then […]
At the start of last year I wrote a piece with the same title. Coming into 2025, many investors assumed 2024’s winners would stay winners. Then a surprise policy shock broad reciprocal tariffs announced by the White House sent markets into a tailspin. The cockpit went dark: prices became hypersensitive to headlines, speculation and narrative. […]
I wrote a piece the other day ‘What, when and why? The portfolio manager’s dilemma’ in which I said that I don’t start the day knowing what I am going to write. Opportunity just knocks. Whether you are an analyst or portfolio manager, you need to know when share prices are offering opportunity or risk […]
Entering into February, we take a look back at the weather report for January 2026 and take a view on what might lie ahead in H1.